Market balance is more likely than a bubble

NSDCAR is proud to provide a monthly research tool that tracks residential real estate market activity in North San Diego County. The HomeDex report features easy-to-read analysis and in-depth statistics for every ZIP code in the county that can be shared with clients. Here are a few revelations from the latest report on activity in July 2018:

— The median sales price for a detached single-family home in North San Diego County reached $755,000 in July 2018, which was 8.6 percent higher than the $695,000 price in July 2017. The July 2018 figure for detached homes is higher than the year-to-date median sales price of $720,000.

— For attached homes, the median home price in the North County was $475,500 in July 2018, which was an 8.7 percent increase compared to the $437,500 price the same month a year ago. The July 2018 figure for attached homes is higher than the year-to-date median sales price of $460,000.

— The average number of days for a North County home on the market (the time between when a property is listed and an offer is accepted) was 31 days for detached homes and 23 days for attached homes. In July 2017, the numbers were 31 and 21 days, respectively. In June 2018, the numbers were 28 and 22 days, respectively.

— Closed sales totaled 937 detached units in July 2018, which was a 7.9 percent year-over-year drop compared to the 1,017 units sold in July 2017. For attached home sales, closed sales totaled 366 in July, a 13.1 percent decline from July 2017’s total of 421.

— The percentage of original list price received for detached homes was 97.4 percent in July, a 0.3 percent change from 97.7 percent in July 2017. For attached homes, the percentage was 98.5 percent, a 0.3 percent difference from 98.4 percent in July 2017.

— The number of detached properties that were listed on the market in July reached 1,423, a 2.8 percent increase from the 1,384 properties listed in July 2017. For detached properties, 548 were listed in July, a 9.6 percent increase from the 500 properties listed in July 2017. The year-to-date totals for detached listings was 9,936 through July, a 0.2 percent increase from 9,912 listings through July 2017; the year-to-date total for attached property listings was 3,561 through July, a 3.7 percent increase from the 3,434 listings through July 2017.

“Housing price bubble chatter has increased this summer, but I would ignore it,” said Carol Farrar, 2018 NSDCAR president. “Market observers always try to predict the next residential real estate shift, but it is too early to expect a change from higher prices and lower inventory, even though the common markers that caused the last housing cool-down are present. Wages are up but not at the same pace as home prices, leading to the kind of affordability concerns that can cause fewer sales at lower prices. At the same time, demand is still outpacing what is available for sale. With a growing economy, solid lending practices and the potential for improved inventory from new listing and building activity, market balance is more likely than a bubble,” said Farrar.

San Diego North County neighborhoods covered in the NSDCAR report stretch northward from Carmel Valley along the coast, including Del Mar, Solana Beach, Cardiff, Encinitas, Rancho Santa Fe, Carlsbad and Oceanside, plus inland areas north of Rancho Bernardo, including Rancho Penasquitos, Poway, Escondido, Vista and San Marcos, as well as rural communities such as Ramona, Pauma Valley, Valley Center, Pala, Fallbrook and Bonsall.

NSDCAR’s full report for July 2018 is available here

 

“Market observers always try to predict the next residential real estate shift, but it is too early to expect a change from higher prices and lower inventory”